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Links 7/29/2022 | naked capitalism

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#Hyperlinks #bare #capitalism

Lambert and I, and lots of readers, agree that Ukraine has prompted the worst informational atmosphere ever. We hope readers will collaborate in mitigating the fog of struggle — each actual fog and stage fog — in feedback. None of us want extra cheerleading and link-free repetition of memes; there are platforms for that. Low-value, link-free pom pom-wavers can be summarily whacked.

And for many who are new right here, this isn’t a mere well mannered request. We’ve got written web site Insurance policies and people who remark have accepted these phrases. To stop having to resort to the nuclear possibility of shutting feedback down completely till extra sanity prevails, as we did throughout the 2015 Greek bailout negotiations and shortly after the 2020 election, we’re going to be ruthless about moderating and blacklisting offenders.

–Yves

P.S. Additionally, earlier than additional stressing our already pressured moderators, learn our web site insurance policies:

Please don’t write us to ask why a remark has not appeared. We wouldn’t have the bandwidth to analyze and reply. Utilizing the feedback part to complain about moderation selections/tripwires earns that commenter troll factors. Please don’t do it. These feedback can even be eliminated if we encounter them.

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Engineer Attempts to Understand How His Cat Can Sleep Through Anything Except the Opening of a Can Laughing Squid (resilc). One in every of my cats, Blake, stayed with a buddy whereas I used to be on a overseas journey. She stated he although his title was the sound of the fridge door opening.

Giddyup! Beer-drinking pony elected ‘mayor’ New York Publish. Kevin W: “Possibly he bought elected as a result of the earlier mayor was an ass.”

Vermont Woman Accused of Using Bear Spray on Hunters Seven Days (resilc). Lordie. They don’t shoot bears however chase them round with canines to maintain them leery of individuals. Provided that bears that get too habituated to breaking into vehicles and kitchens to eat usually get killed, that is useful, not dangerous to bears.

Bumblebees appear to feel pain PhysOrg

New Giant Dinosaur Discovery Reveals Why Many Prehistoric Carnivores Had Such Tiny Arms ScienceTech (furzy)

Nitrogen crisis from jam-packed livestock operations has ‘paralyzed’ Dutch economy Science (David L)

CDC warns deadly bacteria detected in U.S. for 1st time Axios (resilc). Eeek!

Most high blood pressure in children and teenagers is linked with unhealthy lifestyle European Society of Cardiology

#COVID-19

Science/Drugs

Mystery over spike in Covid deaths on hottest day of the year: Virus fatalities doubled in 40C heat Every day Mail

How omicron BA.5 became a master of disguise Asia Instances

US

Monkeypox

Sewage reveals spread of monkeypox virus E&E Information (Dr. Kevin)

Local weather/Setting

Taps Run Dry: Heat and Drought Ravage Monterrey, Mexico Bloomberg (ma)

Wildfire Smoke Is Terrible for You. But What Does It Do to Cows? Wired

Two of the Largest Freshwater Fish in the World Declared Extinct Subject & Stream (Dr. Kevin) 🙁

Why Fungi Might Really Be Magic (When It Comes to Climate Change) New York Instances (resilc)

China?

China Is Issuing The Same “Red Line” Warnings About Taiwan That Russia Issued About Ukraine Caitlin Johnstone (Kevin W)

“Free Trade” Has Put America & Democracy At the Mercy of China Hartman Report (resilc)

In Xinjiang, China, surveillance technology is used to help the state control its citizens CBC (ma)

Outdated Blighty

British exporters report stagnating trade as post-Brexit delays blamed Guardian. Resilc: “They bought Bojo’d.”

New Not-So-Chilly Struggle

They had been set for struggle crimes trials:

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Siemens failed to fulfill obligations: Gazprom on Nord Stream repair Enterprise Customary. That Montreal-visiting half is STILL not again. It doesn’t appear like Gazprom is Making Shit Up in complaining about its generators going kerfluie.

EU gas solidarity complicated by lack of fuel sharing deals ekathermerini

Latvia admits it has resumed purchases of Russian gas Generico

Russia, Saudi Arabia firmly committed to stability of oil market, restoring supply/demand balance Interfax

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German consumer sentiment plunges to new record low – GfK Reuters

Polish July Inflation Stays Unchanged at Quarter-Century High Bloomberg. 15.5%

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Syrian ship carrying ‘stolen Ukrainian barley, flour’ docks in Lebanon, Ukrainian embassy says Reuters (Kevin W). After having documentation and the cargo checked by Turkey and launched solely then…

Ukrainian MPs approve ‘special status’ for Poles RT (Kevin W)

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US Should Not Fund Ukrainian ‘Blacklist’ Scott Ritter, ConsortiumNews

Russia will grant US call request ‘when time allows’ RT (Kevin W). The US might need thought of that there can be penalties for the juvenile snubbing of Lavrov on the G20.

Lavrov is on Blinken’s list of people to call Indian Punchline (Kevin W). ZOMG, the headline. However Blinken overstates Lavrov’s latest remarks.

Syraqistan

Biden Aide: ‘Highly Unlikely’ Iran Nuclear Deal Will Be Revived Soon Antiwar. Resilc: “Israelis say no, so USA USA received’t go.”

Large Brother is Watching You Watch

21st Century wire tap? Spies could use fibre-optic broadband cables to EAVESDROP on people from over half a mile away, study shows Every day Mail (BC). One benefit of not but having fiber optic. Surprise if it may be defeated by white noise.

Imperial Collapse Watch

Emperor unclothed? Why we can’t expect ‘big change’ from the president Andrew Bacevich, Accountable Statecraft. Putin commented on this in his interviews with Oliver Stone. He meet with presidents who made commitments that then fizzled away (the commitments, not the presidents). Putin attributed it to them being hostage to greater pursuits.

British Official Says Nuclear War Threat Higher Than During the Cold War AntiWar

1/6

Jan. 6 texts missing for Trump Homeland Security secretary and deputy Washington Publish (furzy)

Trump

Trump’s America First Speech Was a Soft Launch for 2024 Atlantic

The Department of Justice Is Circling Donald Trump Very Slowly Charles Pierce, Esquire (reslic). How lengthy has the press talked up indictments? Wake me up once they lastly occur.

Biden

“I’ve Delivered”: New Disclosures Demolish President Biden’s Denials on Hunter Dealings Jonathan Turley

GOP Clown Automotive

‘Total bulls***’: Anger boils over after Republicans block bill to help vets exposed to burn pits Yahoo! Information (Kevin W)

Democrats en déshabillé

After Clash, Manchin and Schumer Rushed to Reset Climate and Tax Deal New York Instances (Kevin W)

House Dems rally behind Manchin deal The Hill

Abortion

The Right Is Freaking Out About Jane’s Revenge. But What Is It? Vice (resilc)

Gavin Newsom’s plan to save the Constitution by trolling the Supreme Court with a new gun law Vox

Crooked Crook Ltd: company registration scandals on the Tax Justice Network podcast, the Taxcast Tax Justice Community

China’s BYD was written off by Elon Musk. Now it’s beating Tesla Al Jazeera (resilc)

Battery Recycling: The Next Big Challenge For The EV Boom OilPrice

Brembo’s Sensify brakes are nothing short of a small revolution Autoblog. Having mastered the talents of braking on ice and steering out of a skid, I hate these new brakes, as a result of reflexes I discovered will put a automobile in a spin.

‘Here we go’: FTC’s Meta case puts Lina Khan’s antitrust vision to the test Monetary Instances. Heavy-handed pro-tech-incumbent spin. Not unusual for regulators and prosecutors to lose preliminary instances in evolving areas. However the effort right here is to power Kahn and he FTC to again off if this primary try fails.

Powell pushing Asia into a new financial crisis Asia Instances (Kevin W)

Provide Chain/Inflation

How bad will the global food crisis get? Monetary Instances

Here’s Where Private Equity Is Most Involved in Medicine MedPage (Carla R)

Class Warfare

Critical minerals, rare earths industry faces talent shortage Quartz. Resilc: “We’re uninvested in abilities from plumbers to EEs”

Corporate Landlords ‘Aggressively’ Evicted Tenants During Pandemic, House Report Says Bloomberg (ma)

Trader Joe’s store in Massachusetts becomes first to unionize Guardian (resilc)

Antidote du jour (Tracie H):

And a bonus (Ignacio). I really feel sorry for that cat. My cat Blake was very intelligent in how he skilled me to run a skinny stream for water for him, by licking at a just-turned-off faucet to get any drops. After all an attentive human would perceive what was wished and supply it.

See yesterday’s Hyperlinks and Antidote du Jour here.

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Back to the 80s: UK inflation hits double digits

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#80s #inflation #hits #double #digits

This text is an on-site model of our Disrupted Instances e-newsletter. Sign up here to get the e-newsletter despatched straight to your inbox thrice per week

Good night

UK inflation has hit double digits for the primary time in additional than 40 years, elevating the opportunity of rates of interest rising additional and quicker, and coming scorching on the heels of labour market information exhibiting actual ranges of wages falling quickly.

The leap in July’s CPI to 10.1 per cent, the very best within the G7, was up from 9.4 per cent in June and fuelled by a 12.7 per cent improve in meals costs, the most important improve in additional than 20 years. Excluding risky meals and power, the core fee was additionally greater than anticipated, hitting 6.2 per cent.

Brief-term UK government bonds bought off sharply on the information as merchants lifted their expectations for Financial institution of England fee rises to greater than two share factors by Might subsequent yr.

Economics editor Chris Giles argues the BoE must acknowledge the mistakes in its method to containing inflation and that Boris Johnson’s substitute as prime minister ought to look afresh at its mandate. (You’ll be able to learn what the 2 Tory contenders take into consideration the financial system and different key points in our explainer).

As Giles factors out, BoE policymakers are eager to spotlight what they see as the advantages of an impartial central financial institution controlling inflation. One even deployed data going back some 800 years (!) to make his level.

Right now’s information follows yesterday’s report that actual ranges of UK wages fell on the fastest rate for at least 20 years within the second quarter, highlighting the difficulties going through households even earlier than energy bills rise sharply in October.

Separate ONS analysis confirmed poorer households had been going through higher charges of inflation as a result of they spend an even bigger proportion of their budgets on power and meals, the 2 quickest rising parts.

Economists stated the hit to households would feed by means of to decrease financial development. Jamie O’Halloran at Professional Bono Economics, an organisation that advises the charitable sector, stated the fast rise in costs was “driving a punishing value of residing disaster, with the specter of recession looming ever nearer”.

Examine traits throughout the globe with our global inflation tracker.

Chart from FT inflation tracker
Select as much as 5 nations for comparability

Newest information

For up-to-the-minute information updates, go to our live blog

Have to know: the financial system

An additional rise in pure gasoline costs in Europe and the US threatens to tip a few of the world’s greatest economies into recession. The most recent European value is equal in power phrases to $400 a barrel of oil, as Russia restricts provides and merchants race to safe provides forward of the winter.

The US Federal Reserve publishes the minutes of its July 26-27 coverage assembly at 2pm ET/ 7pm London time at present. Test again on FT.com for the main points.

Newest for the UK and Europe

Consultants are calling for a revamp of the 25-year previous Northern Eire peace settlement. The area has been and not using a absolutely functioning govt for six months due to a row about post-Brexit trade arrangements. Michelle O’Neill, the chief of Sinn Féin, the social gathering that received essentially the most votes in Might’s elections, advised the FT she wouldn’t permit the agreement to unravel.

Fears of a German recession have deepened, in line with the carefully watched ZEW survey, which hit its lowest level since 2011.

A 46 per cent rise within the worth of Turkish exports to Russia has raised fears the nations are working collectively to get spherical international sanctions. The primary grain-carrying ship to depart Ukraine because the Russian invasion seems to have docked in Syria, a robust ally of Moscow.

Brussels is attempting to spice up output of homegrown raw materials wanted for inexperienced power by reducing regulatory obstacles to mining and manufacturing of supplies corresponding to lithium, cobalt and graphite, utilized in wind farms, photo voltaic panels and electrical autos. Denmark’s Vestas, the world’s largest maker of wind generators, and Ørsted, the world’s greatest offshore wind farm developer, stated governments wanted to simplify their planning processes.

World newest

Kenyan presidential contender Raila Odinga is difficult the slim victory of William Ruto within the election to succeed Uhuru Kenyatta. The uncertainty has sparked fears of a return of the lethal post-election violence of 2007 and 2017.

Former Salomon Brothers economist Henry Kaufman — Wall Avenue’s authentic Dr Doom — says the US Federal Reserve needs to “toughen up” its combat in opposition to inflation. “If you wish to change somebody’s motion, you’ll be able to’t slap them on the hand, you must hit them within the face,” he argues.

Markets editor Katie Martin discusses the influence on buyers as central banks transfer from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening of their wrestle to include inflation within the new Behind the Money podcast.

Are we heading in the direction of a worldwide recession? Our economics editor Chris Giles and US economics editor Colby Smith are in dialogue in an Instagram live on August 18 at 4pm BST/11am ET.

Have to know: enterprise

Multinational firms are drawing up contingency plans in case tensions round Taiwan explode into armed conflict. “This little island that was at all times form of simmering . . . impulsively is perceived in lots of headquarters prefer it’s going to be the following Ukraine,” stated the pinnacle of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China.

Norway’s oil fund, the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund and proprietor of the equal of 1.5 per cent of each listed firm on the earth, has swung to a big loss, weighed down by a sell-off throughout all sectors besides power.

Toyota and Apple provider Foxconn are amongst firms struggling electrical energy issues attributable to hydropower shortages in south-west China attributable to droughts and heatwaves. The Lex column says the issues may push China again in the direction of coal and an increase in carbon emissions.

Tencent, China’s most precious firm, reported its first ever fall in quarterly profit. The tech enterprise can also be being affected by altering shopper behaviour: “The worldwide video games market is experiencing a post-pandemic digestion interval as gamers resume offline actions,” it stated.

Walmart, the world’s greatest retailer, and DIY chain Dwelling Depot each reported better than expected results, lessening fears of a looming US recession. Walmart shrugged off latest revenue warnings whereas Dwelling Depot reported its highest quarterly gross sales and earnings on file. Rival Goal, nevertheless, reported a bigger than forecast drop in profits after providing reductions to shift inventory.

The US semiconductor trade is going through a sudden downturn after the increase in the course of the pandemic, forcing a few of the greatest chipmakers to drastically slash capital spending, simply as Washington passes a brand new regulation to subsidise a rise in home capability.

Global chip sales chart

UK hospitality companies have misplaced almost 200,000 abroad staff because the finish of 2019 due to Brexit and the pandemic, in line with an industry survey. A London restaurateur stated his wage invoice had elevated virtually 20 per cent previously yr in makes an attempt to draw workers. “The expansion in hospitality within the final 30 years has been fuelled virtually totally by a non-British workforce,” he stated.

The World of Work

Apple chief Tim Prepare dinner has advised his workers to return to the workplace three days per week from September to protect the “in-person collaboration that is so essential to our culture”.

August is the standard time for making your self scarce on the workplace. So why are so many still working this month, asks Pilita Clark. Is the phenomenon attributable to the rise of hybrid working as bosses clock on whereas additionally being on the coast with their households?

Economists are beginning to use real-world information to check on a regular basis sexual harassment within the office, writes Sarah O’Connor, with outcomes exhibiting that male perpetrators are inclined to endure fewer profession penalties than ladies.

O’Connor additionally detects an finish to the “anti-work” development that sprang up in the course of the pandemic as inflation, falling actual wages and chaotic monetary markets push many back into the labour force.

Covid circumstances and vaccinations

Complete world circumstances: 584.9mn

Complete doses given: 12.5bn

Get the most recent worldwide image with our vaccine tracker

Some excellent news…

New know-how involving miniature human organs inbuilt a lab means animal testing may lastly be on the best way out. Our Large Learn has the details.

Montage of lab equipment
© FT montage: Ian Bott/Dreamstime

Working it — Uncover the large concepts shaping at present’s workplaces with a weekly e-newsletter from work & careers editor Isabel Berwick. Join here

The Local weather Graphic: Defined — Understanding a very powerful local weather information of the week. Join here

Thanks for studying Disrupted Instances. Have you ever noticed some excellent news tales you’d prefer to share with FT readers? Please ship them to us at disruptedtimes@ft.com. If this article has been forwarded to you, please join here to obtain future points. Thanks

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Passive vs. Active – The Big Picture

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#Passive #Energetic #Massive #Image

 

Yesterday I spent a while with Eric Balchunas recording a Masters in Enterprise podcast. Balchunas is Senior ETF Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence and the creator of “The Bogle Effect: How John Bogle and Vanguard Turned Wall Street Inside Out and Saved Investors Trillions.”

It’s a enjoyable dialog I’m positive all people will get pleasure from.

There are elements of our dialogue I believed had been apparent, however he satisfied me as underappreciated: Firstly, the extraordinary disruption of low-cost funds and ETFs.

What’s apparent is that cheaper is best than costlier; that there are inherent prices in managing an lively portfolio that embody extra than simply buying and selling and taxes however analysis, evaluation, PMs, and so on. Maybe most necessary of all, are the behavioral benefits of passive.

Say what you’ll about some great benefits of passive investing, however Eric argues that if a store like Vanguard had launched solely low-cost lively investing (and by no means targeted on passive), it will have grown to turn into a trillion-dollar colossus regardless.

It’s an attention-grabbing thesis that, sadly, we can’t take a look at in the actual world. It’s definitely potential it might need occurred (I stay skeptical). For positive, ETF and fund charges compound over time, and whether or not or not they’re passive or actively managed doesn’t matter. However that isn’t the identical as changing into one of the vital dominant asset managers on this planet.

One other problem was the “malleability” of perception methods among the many lecturers who analysis low-cost passive investing. I’ve been each stunned and disillusioned at professors keen to toss out their objectivity/fame by pushing nonsensical concepts on behalf of the lively business. Given what number of billions of {dollars} low-cost passive has price the business – Balchunas estimates it’s now over a trillion {dollars} – maybe I shouldn’t be so stunned…

Regardless, a enjoyable dialog that shall be posted per week from Friday.

 

 

 

See additionally:
How Expense Ratios and Star Ratings Predict Success
Russel Kinnel
Morningstar, August 9, 2010

 

Beforehand:
Don’t Blame Morningstar for Our Own Shortcomings (October 26, 2017)

 

 

 

 

 

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Influential Oil Company Scenarios for Combating Climate Change Don’t Actually Meet the Paris Agreement Goals, Our New Analysis Shows

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#Influential #Oil #Firm #Situations #Combating #Local weather #Change #Dont #Meet #Paris #Settlement #Targets #Evaluation #Exhibits

Yves right here. Quelle shock! Oil corporations unserious about tackling local weather change! However it’s helpful to see how they sport numbers.

By Robert Brecha, Professor of Sustainability, College of Dayton and Gaurav Ganti, Ph.D. Pupil in Geography, Humboldt College of Berlin. Initially printed at The Conversation

A number of main oil corporations, together with BP and Shell, periodically publish situations forecasting the way forward for the vitality sector. Lately, they’ve added visions for the way local weather change could be addressed, together with situations that they declare are in keeping with the worldwide Paris local weather settlement.

These situations are vastly influential. They’re utilized by corporations making funding choices and, importantly, by policymakers as a foundation for his or her choices.

However are they really compatible with the Paris Settlement?

Most of the future situations present continued reliance on fossil fuels. However knowledge gaps and an absence of transparency could make it troublesome to check them with unbiased scientific assessments, comparable to the worldwide evaluations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

In a study printed Aug. 16, 2022, in Nature Communications, our worldwide crew analyzed 4 of those situations and two others by the Worldwide Vitality Company utilizing a brand new methodology we developed for evaluating such vitality situations head-to-head. We decided that 5 of them – together with ceaselessly cited situations from BP, Shell and Equinor – weren’t in keeping with the Paris objectives.

What the Paris Settlement Expects

The 2015 Paris Agreement, signed by almost all nations, units out a few criteria to satisfy its targets.

One is to make sure the worldwide common temperature improve stays nicely under 2 levels Celsius (3.6 F) in comparison with pre-industrial period ranges, and to pursue efforts to maintain warming beneath 1.5°C (2.7 F). The settlement additionally states that international emissions ought to peak as quickly as doable and attain at the least net zero greenhouse fuel emissions within the second half of the century. Pathways that meet these targets present that carbon dioxide emissions ought to fall even sooner, reaching internet zero by about 2050.

Scientific proof reveals that overshooting 1.5°C of warming, even quickly, would have dangerous consequences for the global climate. These penalties should not essentially reversible, and it’s unclear how nicely individuals, ecosystems and economies would be able to adapt.

How the Situations Carry out

Now we have been working with the nonprofit science and coverage analysis institute Climate Analytics to higher perceive the implications of the Paris Settlement for global and nationaldecarbonization pathways – the paths nations can take to chop their greenhouse fuel emissions. Specifically, we’ve got explored the roles that coal and natural gas can play because the world transitions away from fossil fuels.

Once we analyzed the vitality corporations’ decarbonization situations, we discovered that BP’s, Shell’s and Equinor’s situations overshoot the 1.5°C restrict of the Paris Settlement by a major margin, with solely BP’s having a higher than 50% probability of subsequently drawing temperatures all the way down to 1.5°C by 2100.

These situations additionally confirmed increased near-term use of coal and long-term use of fuel for electrical energy manufacturing than Paris-compatible situations, comparable to these assessed by the IPCC. General, the vitality firm situations additionally characteristic increased ranges of carbon dioxide emissions than Paris-compatible situations.

Of the six situations, we decided that solely the Worldwide Vitality Company’s Net Zero by 2050 situation sketches out an vitality future that’s appropriate with the 1.5°C Paris Settlement objective.

We discovered this situation has a higher than 33% probability of preserving warming from ever exceeding 1.5°C, a 50% probability of getting temperatures 1.5°C hotter or much less in 2100, and an almost 90% probability of preserving warming all the time under 2°C. That is in keeping with the standards we use to evaluate Paris Agreement consistency, and in addition in keeping with the method taken within the IPCC’s Special Report on 1.5°C, which highlights pathways with no or restricted overshoot to be 1.5°C appropriate.

Getting the Proper Image of Decarbonization

When any group publishes future vitality situations, it’s helpful to have a clear approach to make an apples-to-apples comparability and consider the temperature implications. A lot of the company situations, excluding Shell’s Sky 1.5 situation, don’t prolong past midcentury and give attention to carbon dioxide with out assessing different greenhouse gases.

Our methodology makes use of a clear process to increase every pathway to 2100 and estimate emissions of different gases, which permits us to calculate the temperature outcomes of those situations utilizing simple climate models.

With out a constant foundation for comparability, there’s a threat that policymakers and companies may have an inaccurate image in regards to the pathways obtainable for decarbonizing economies.

Assembly the 1.5°C objective can be difficult. The planet has already warmed about 1.1°C since pre-industrial times, and individuals are struggling via lethal warmth waves, droughts, wildfires and excessive storms linked to local weather change. There’s little room for false begins and dead-ends as nations remodel their vitality, agricultural and industrial programs on the way in which to net-zero greenhouse fuel emissions.

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