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Links 6/21/2022 | naked capitalism

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#Hyperlinks #bare #capitalism

Lambert and I, and plenty of readers, agree that Ukraine has prompted the worst informational setting ever. We hope readers will collaborate in mitigating the fog of warfare — each actual fog and stage fog — in feedback. None of us want extra cheerleading and link-free repetition of memes; there are platforms for that. Low-value, link-free pom pom-wavers might be summarily whacked.

And for individuals who are new right here, this isn’t a mere well mannered request. Now we have written web site Insurance policies and people who remark have accepted these phrases. To forestall having to resort to the nuclear possibility of shutting feedback down completely till extra sanity prevails, as we did in the course of the 2015 Greek bailout negotiations and shortly after the 2020 election, we’re going to be ruthless about moderating and blacklisting offenders.

–Yves

P.S. Additionally, earlier than additional stressing our already pressured moderators, learn our web site insurance policies:

Please don’t write us to ask why a remark has not appeared. We would not have the bandwidth to analyze and reply. Utilizing the feedback part to complain about moderation choices/tripwires earns that commenter troll factors. Please don’t do it. These feedback can even be eliminated if we encounter them.

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Nature: Visit to bald eagle nest reveals a different kind of ‘family’ Columbus Dispatch (furzy)

‘An Immense World’ Review: Where Beasts Have Us Beat Wall Road Journal (Anthony L)

World’s largest freshwater fish found in Mekong, scientists say BBC (resilc)

Nepal to move Everest base camp from melting glacier BBC. Micael T: “‘As an example, we discovered that folks urinate round 4,000 litres on the base camp day-after-day,’ he mentioned.”

Nonsense on Stilts: No, LaMDA is not sentient. Not even slightly Gary Marcus (Anthony L)

Anthropomorphization and beyond: conceptualizing humanwashing of AI‐enabled machines Springer (David L)

Google Insider Claims Company’s “Sentient” AI Has Hired an Attorney Futurism (Dr. Kevin)

No #COVID-19 as we speak! First time since early 2020! Not as a result of not warranted however as a result of I received my nostril in too deep in geopolitics to forage for Covid tales. So please be at liberty to make up for this omission in feedback.

Local weather/Surroundings

L.A. needs 90,000 trees to battle extreme heat. Will residents step up to plant them? Los Angeles Occasions (David L)

Vietnam Imprisons Leading Environmentalist on Tax Evasion Charges The Diplomat (dk)

China?

China’s comprehensive, systematic and elaborate response to Secretary Antony Blinken’s China policy speech —— Reality Check: Falsehoods in US Perceptions of China Embassy of the Individuals’s Republic of China in the USA (Chuck L). Necessary, though it does go on a bit a lot, however this may be considered the grasp speaking factors doc from which Chinese language officers can hoist key details and arguments. It’s very sturdy on some factors, like numerous facets of US making an attempt to decorate up its imperialism as safety of democracy, not a lot on China’s actions vis a vis Hong Kong.

US building ‘asymmetric capability’ for Taiwan island pure ‘daydreaming’ International Occasions

‘Very troubling’: Emails reveal US alarm over China-Solomons pact Al Jazeera (resilc)

Marcos to tap China’s assistance for economic recovery Asia Occasions

India

In Assam’s worst-hit district, floods have meant food is running out – and so is drinking water Scroll

Commission president calls to end unanimity in EU foreign policy decisions Politico (Kevin W). Thoughts you, that is to facilitate the entry of Ukraine and Moldova and Lord solely is aware of who else….

Brexit

The deafening silence over Brexit’s economic fallout Monetary Occasions (David L)

Ex-Northern Ireland secretary accuses Boris Johnson of ‘Putinesque tactics’ Guardian (resilc)

Previous Blighty

Biggest Rail Strike in 30 Years Brings UK to Standstill Reuters

Whenever Johnson has a problem, he calls Zelenskiy – and the bill is rapidly mounting Guardian (Kevin W)

New Not-So-Chilly Warfare

When The Lies Come Home Douglas MacGregor, American Conservative

UKRAINE UPDATE (June 18, 2022) – with Scott Ritter and Ray McGovern Garland Nixon, YouTube. Good dialogue of China and Iran as properly.

Some hard thoughts about post Ukraine Graham Fuller (Moon of Alabama)

Ukraine minister Kuleba accuses critics of being ‘enablers of Putin’ Accountable Statecraft. Resilc flags this half:

There’s a nice want to assist the Ukrainian individuals defend themselves from the unlawful and brutal invasion. However the President of the USA is elected by Americans, and has sworn an oath to defend them and their pursuits, too. That features defending the U.S. financial system and protecting America out of conflicts that aren’t within the important safety pursuits of the USA, or confrontations that can result in mindless devastation and killing abroad.

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Anger as Lithuania bans transit of goods to Russia exclave Kaliningrad Euronews (furzy)

Russia warns it will ‘take actions’ against NATO member Lithuania after blocking sanctioned goods Each day Mail (resilc)

Russia reveals number of victims from drilling rig strikes RT. Kevin W: “I feel that this story is essential. If nothing else, it’s going to persuade the Russians that they can not depart the Ukrainians with any shoreline in any respect.”

Arestovich is a Ukraine spokescritter:

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EU warns against fossil fuel ‘backsliding’ as coal replaces Russian gas Monetary Occasions. Empty exhortations as an try to cowl for lack of planning.

Netherlands To Burn More Coal To Conserve Gas OilPrice (Kevin W)

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Right between the eyes: Putin to the West at the St Petersburg Economic forum Gilbert Doctorow (guurst)

Key Points From DPR Leader Denis Pushilin’s Speech St Petersburg International Economic Forum 2022 YouTube. Exceptional that this has gotten little discover. Watch at 1.25x

Ukrainian Students Are Taking Haunting Grad Photos in Rubble Created by the War MyModernMet (David L)

Syraqistan

The Insane ‘Option’ of Attacking Iran Daniel Larison (resilc). Is it simply me, or do many of the US geopolitics items of late appear to be written by individuals with mind worms?

Israel heading to elections, Knesset to disband, Yair Lapid to become PM Jerusalem Put up (resilc)

Later: Early election poll shows: No 61-seat majority for either side Jerusalem Put up (resilc)

Imperial Collapse Watch

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare

The Return of Industrial Warfare Royal United Providers Institute. PlutoniumKun: “Brief model – the west has destroyed its personal capability to wage warfare.”

Why are States we don’t like ‘Regimes’ while friendly ones have ‘Governments’? Juan Cole (resilc)

The United States leads the world in incarceration. Why? Vox (resilc)

1/6

Exclusive: Trump’s Team Setting Up Eastman to Take Blame for Jan. 6 Rolling Stone (David L)

Trump

Trump ratchets up attacks amid questions about his presidential viability The Hill

Biden

Biden Taps Anti-Social Security Ideologue To Oversee Program The Lever

Biden says he’s nearing decisions on gas tax holiday and student loans as he tries to tame costs CNN

‘We Were Felons’ The Tyee (Dr. Kevin)

Our No Longer Free Press

“Terminated” Susie Shiny (Paul R). In case you weren’t involved about Google, this would possibly change your thoughts.

The Rich Get Richer Jed S. Rakoff, New York Evaluation of Books (J-LS)

He’s the first buyer of the electric F-150. Why he’s the future of the car industry NPR (David L)

Trump ratchets up attacks amid questions about his presidential viability Bloomberg

Elon Musk Has Gone Off The Rails, Will He Take Tesla & SpaceX With Him? CleanTechnica (Paul R)

Class Warfare

Larry Summers Says US Needs 5% Jobless Rate for Five Years to Ease Inflation Yahoo. BC: “Larry Summers, Man Of The Individuals….NOT”

The Wall St. Billionaire and GOP Mega-Donor Gaming the Tax System ProPublica

Tesla sued by former employees over ‘mass layoff’ Reuters (resilc)

‘It was stolen from me’: Black doctors are forced out of training programs at far higher rates than white residents STAT

Antidote du jour (Stephen T):

See yesterday’s Hyperlinks and Antidote du Jour here.

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What Is Corporate Bond Market Distress?

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#Company #Bond #Market #Misery

Company bonds are a key supply of funding for U.S. non-financial companies and a key funding safety for insurance coverage corporations, pension funds, and mutual funds. Misery within the company bond market can thus each impair entry to credit score for company debtors and scale back funding alternatives for key monetary sub-sectors. In a February 2021 Liberty Street Economics post, we launched a unified measure of company bond market misery, the Company Bond Market Misery Index (CMDI), then adopted up in early June 2022 with a have a look at how company bond market functioning developed over 2022 within the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the tightening of U.S. financial coverage. Immediately we’re launching the CMDI as a regularly produced data series, with new readings to be revealed every month. On this submit, we describe what constitutes company bond market misery, encourage the development of the CMDI, and argue that secondary market measures alone are inadequate to seize market functioning.

Market misery entails each main and secondary markets

Justice Potter Stewart famously stated “I do know it after I see it” within the 1964 Jacobellis vs Ohio Supreme Court docket ruling. So what ought to policymakers take note of in figuring out whether or not a market is in misery?  The Emergency Relief and Reconstruction Act of 1932  states that, with the intention to provide backstop lending, that:

…the Federal Reserve Financial institution shall receive proof that such particular person, partnership or company is unable to safe ample credit score lodging from different banking establishments.

Equally, the BIS Market Committee highlights that:

Market dysfunction has the potential to disrupt the move of credit score to the financial system, thereby impacting actual exercise and worth stability and, because of this, attainment of central banks’ financial objectives.

Within the context of debt capital markets, entry to credit score can be impaired when there’s a vital slowdown in main markets the place credit score flows from traders to companies.

Major markets, nonetheless, don’t exist in isolation, and secondary market circumstances could have an effect on main market functioning if, for instance, underwriters face unsure prospects of inserting new issuance. A well-functioning secondary market is one during which transactions can happen quickly and with little impression on worth, the dimensions of transaction quantity might be absorbed with out undue affect on costs, execution is fast, and costs return shortly to “regular” ranges after short-term order imbalances. An vital characteristic of episodes of market misery—or “liquidity black holes”—is that enormous worth modifications alone are usually not enough to evaluate market functioning as massive worth modifications can as an alternative point out a easily functioning market incorporating new info shortly.

How will we acknowledge misery?

The descriptions above spotlight that market misery is multifaceted and that measures of anyone facet of market functioning will seemingly current an incomplete image of misery. To assemble the CMDI, we coalesce info on seven features of market functioning—main market volumes, main market pricing, secondary market volumes, secondary market liquidity, secondary market pricing, secondary market default-adjusted pricing, and quoted pricing on non-traded bonds—utilizing insights from the machine studying literature on picture recognition and language processing to assemble a unified measure of market functioning. As described in technical element in our staff report, the CMDI flags market misery as durations when metrics of extra features of market functioning are signaling misery, slightly than when metrics of particular person options of market misery are greater on common.

To grasp the distinction between these two ideas of coalescing info from a number of particular person measures, contemplate the next easy instance. Suppose that we solely used bid-ask spreads and first market quantity. Which of the next two conditions is extra distressed?

  • The bid-ask unfold is in its prime tenth historic percentile, in order that liquidity available in the market is poor, whereas main market quantity can be in its prime tenth percentile, in order that issuance is nonetheless good.
  • Each the bid-ask unfold and issuance quantity are at their corresponding historic medians.

From the angle of a single measure that averages throughout metrics, market misery is on the identical stage in each conditions, as the typical metric is within the heart of the distribution in each circumstances. A measure that as an alternative identifies misery as misery alongside a larger variety of options will understand the second scenario as being probably extra regarding because the bid-ask unfold and issuance quantity present conflicting indicators within the first instance.

The chart beneath plots the time collection of the CMDI along with the primary principal part (PCA)—a classy method of averaging throughout metricsof the seven options of market functioning that underlie the CMDI. The chart reveals that, whereas each approaches appropriately establish durations of maximum misery—when each the typical characteristic signifies misery and the plurality of measures point out misery—the PCA overidentifies market misery when market circumstances are comparatively calm. Our easy instance illustrates this instinct: the averaging strategy is extra prone to be influenced by excessive observations of anyone measure. Within the staff report, we present that the CMDI is a greater predictor of each future realizations of different measures of economic circumstances and future actual exercise realizations than the PCA, suggesting that the CMDI does certainly present a “cleaner” sign of market misery.

The PCA strategy overidentifies market misery in periods of relative calm

Sources: Mergent FISD; FINRA Commerce Reporting and Compliance Engine; ICE; authors’ calculations. Gray shaded areas correspond to NBER recessions.
Notes: CMDI is Company Bond Market Misery Index. PCA is principal part evaluation.

Why not simply use secondary market measures?

If misery within the secondary market coincides with and even precedes misery within the main market, then measures of move of credit score could also be superfluous within the measurement of market misery. The following chart plots the time collection of month-to-month modifications within the quantity of company debt excellent, along with two common measures of secondary market stress: the surplus bond premium (EBP) of Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012) and the investment-grade credit score default swap-bond (CDS-bond) foundation. The chart reveals that, at the very least contemporaneously, neither of those secondary market metrics is expounded to modifications in debt quantity excellent, in order that months with slowdowns in (internet) company bond issuance are not often months with excessive EBP or months with massive dislocations between the company bond and CDS markets.

Secondary market measures don’t seize main market circumstances

Sources: Mergent FISD; Haver Analytics; J.P. Morgan.
Notes: EBP is extra bond premium. IG is funding grade. CDS is credit score default swap. RHS is right-hand facet.

A “preponderance of metrics” strategy could also be helpful in a wide range of purposes

General, the staff report reveals that taking the “preponderance of metrics” strategy to measuring company bond market misery produces an index that appropriately identifies durations of market misery and predicts future realizations of generally used measures of market misery. Whereas we concentrate on quantifying company bond market misery, the similarity-based strategy to summarizing details about totally different features of exercise is probably relevant in a wide range of financial settings, together with measuring monetary vulnerabilities and figuring out recessions or monetary crises, as described in a earlier Liberty Road Economics post.

Photo: portrait of Nina Boyarchenko

Nina Boyarchenko is the top of Macrofinance Research within the Federal Reserve Financial institution of New York’s Analysis and Statistics Group.

Photo: Portrait of Richard K. Crump

Richard K. Crump is a monetary analysis advisor within the Financial institution’s Analysis and Statistics Group.

Photo: portrait of Anna Kovner

Anna Kovner is the director of Monetary Stability Coverage Analysis within the Financial institution’s Analysis and Statistics Group.

Photo: portrait of Or Shachar

Or Shachar is a monetary economist within the Financial institution’s Analysis and Statistics Group.

Methods to cite this submit:
Nina Boyarchenko, Richard Crump, Anna Kovner, and Or Shachar, “What Is Company Bond Market Misery?,” Federal Reserve Financial institution of New York Liberty Road Economics, June 29, 2022, https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/06/what-is-corporate-bond-market-distress/.


Disclaimer
The views expressed on this submit are these of the writer(s) and don’t essentially mirror the place of the Federal Reserve Financial institution of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the accountability of the writer(s).

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Drax Eyeing California as Site of New Biomass Carbon Capture Plant

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#Drax #Eyeing #California #Website #Biomass #Carbon #Seize #Plant

Yves right here. Biomass seems like a rip-off and this text intimates that it could be one, notably because the subsidies are ginormous. Readers?

And in case you are in California, I’d demand a variety of disclosure. The method to date sounds awfully sketchy.

By Phoebe Cooke, Senior Reporter at DeSmogBlog, whose work has additionally appeared in The Unbiased, The Night Normal, The Solar On-line, Deutsche Welle, The Native and Prospect Journal. Initially printed at DesmogBlog

Biomass silos at Drax energy station in Selby, North Yorkshire. Credit score: Alan Murray-Rust(CC BY-SA 2.0)

British biomass large Drax is lobbying the Californian authorities to play host to its first ever “carbon adverse” energy plant exterior of the UK, regardless of issues in regards to the sustainability of the power supply.

Drax has long-standing plans to launch the world’s largest bioenergy with carbon seize and storage (BECCS) plant in North Yorkshire, however the former coal-fired energy generator now seems to have California in its sights.

BECCS is a controversial know-how that captures carbon dioxide from burning natural matter and buries it underground. Whereas advocates put it up for sale as a “carbon adverse” local weather resolution, specialists and campaigners have arguedthat BECCS is technically unproven, and that the follow poses dangers for biodiversity, land and meals safety.

In a submissionon Thursday to California’s Draft 2022 Scoping Plan – the state’s local weather technique – Drax argued the U.S. would make an “excellent location” to construct its first BECCS undertaking exterior the UK, however would require important political assist within the type of authorities subsidies.

The information has been met with criticism from anti-biomass campaigners, with Gary Hughes from Biofuelwatch arguing that the plan is already beneficial in the direction of carbon seize, and that Drax was “driving roughshod” over the fears raised by environmental justice campaigners round emissions, air air pollution and biodiversity impacts.

“Drax is attempting to benefit from the coverage panorama to see if the plant involves fruition,” Hughes mentioned.

“Despite the fact that this isn’t a concrete proposal, it might show a conceptual win for Drax,” he added. “It needs California to advertise BECCS – and if it could possibly say the ‘international local weather chief’ California is on board, they assume others will comply with.”

‘Ideally suited Website’

Drax presently has wooden pellet processing mills in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, which supply its UK energy station. The brand new proposal, which was put to the California Air Assets Board (CARB), the state’s clear air company, is for a single “adverse emissions” BECCS facility to be developed both in California or an unspecified “Southeast U.S.” location.

Drax claims this undertaking would take away 2 megatons (Mt) of CO2 from the environment yearly, create 1,000 jobs, and allow California to satisfy its 2030 local weather targets extra rapidly.

California was an “excellent web site” for the proposed plant, the doc mentioned, given the “important volumes of forestry waste biomass” accessible to assist a BECCS plant, with “excellent geology appropriate for everlasting geologic storage” within the state’s Central Valley.

Nevertheless, the corporate has confronted criticism over what’s handled as “waste” wooden.

In line with its newest annual report, almost half (3.1 million tonnes) of Drax’s wooden pellets came fromsawmill and different wooden trade residues, whereas “thinnings” and “low grade roundwood” from forests accounted for 3.8 million tonnes. Campaigners argue these shouldn’t be thought-about as waste, however can present biodiversity advantages corresponding to microhabitats for hundreds of species, in addition to very important carbon sinks.

‘Carbon Damaging’

The local weather credentials of Drax – which in 2020 was discovered to be the single largest emitterof carbon dioxide within the UK – and the sustainability of the wooden pellets it makes use of to generate electrical energy have been more and more contested in recent times.

The corporate, which provides round 5 p.c of the UK’s electrical energy by burning wooden pellets, has an ambition to develop into “carbon adverse” by 2030. It has pointedto the Intergovernmental Panel on Local weather Change (IPCC), which says sustainable bioenergy is important to assembly international local weather targets.

The power produced by Drax is classed as renewable beneath UK and EU legislation, beneath the premise that it makes use of bushes which may be replanted to seize carbon.

Drax claims its BECCS know-how creates “carbon adverse” electrical energy, since emissions are in concept buried underground, eradicating extra emissions from the environment than are created.

Warning Urged

Within the doc, Drax makes a pitch for subsidies for the undertaking, stating that it “stands able to assist the federal government to develop the best frameworks to scale up carbon dioxide removing applied sciences”.

The corporate additionally lists a “case research” of the UK’s BECCS plans, which units out the planning steps Drax is pursuing to safe governmental assist.

Drax is presently attempting to safe additional subsidies from the UK authorities, with BECCS plans estimatedby power assume tank Ember to value the power invoice payer over £31.7 billion over the plant’s 25-year lifetime. The planning software has now been acceptedfor examination by the Planning Inspectorate, with a public session anticipated to open within the coming weeks.

Tomos Harrison, from Ember, mentioned there was nonetheless time for policymakers to show their again on BECCS, each within the UK and the U.S.

“If it goes forward, Drax’s proposed BECCS undertaking within the UK might value power bill-payers billions, whereas operating the true and main danger of failing to ship any of the adverse emissions it guarantees,” he informed DeSmog.

“The function BECCS can play in reaching local weather targets is now receiving elevated scrutiny and scepticism from British politicians. It’s important that decision-makers within the U.S. keep away from operating head-long into subsidies for BECCS and as a substitute completely examine its local weather and price implications earlier than making a call to assist it.”

Drax didn’t reply to a request for remark.

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US stocks struggle for direction as traders weigh signs of slowdown

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#shares #wrestle #course #merchants #weigh #indicators #slowdown

Wall Avenue shares traded choppily on Wednesday, after heavy falls within the earlier session, as merchants weighed up contemporary indicators of a looming financial slowdown.

The blue-chip S&P 500 share index, which dropped 2 per cent on Tuesday and is now nearly a fifth decrease for the yr, switched between small good points and losses in early New York dealings. The technology-focused Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7 per cent, earlier than trimming its declines to commerce down 0.3 per cent.

These strikes adopted steep losses in a single day for the 2 share indices, after a lacklustre US client confidence report fuelled issues a couple of downturn. Buyers at the moment are balancing fears of recession with prospects that main central banks, that are elevating rates of interest to deal with inflation, shall be pressured to alter course to counter a downturn.

“We’ve already had a number of weak knowledge from the US housing market, we’ve received weak client confidence knowledge from world wide due to rising costs, and enterprise funding tends to react to the buyer,” mentioned Trevor Greetham, head of multi-asset at Royal London Asset Administration.

“Now, everyone seems to be second-guessing the central banks.”

In authorities bond markets, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury notice fell 0.08 share factors to three.12 per cent as the value of the benchmark debt safety rose. Germany’s 10-year Bund yield slid 0.1 share factors to 1.54 per cent.

Bond yields, which transfer inversely to their costs, are inclined to rise in tandem with forecasts for rates of interest and inflation. However market expectations of a attainable recession have prompted a repricing in current weeks.

After the Federal Reserve raised its principal funds fee by an additional giant 0.75 share factors this month, a number of of its policymakers argued for a similar-sized increase in July. The European Central Financial institution, which has experimented with unfavourable rates of interest to spice up financial exercise since 2014, is broadly anticipated to carry its principal deposit fee above zero by September.

Futures markets now tip the Fed’s benchmark rate of interest to climb to three.5 per cent by early 2023, down from estimates roughly two weeks in the past of three.9 per cent — signalling scaled-back expectations of the extent to which central bankers will carry borrowing prices.

The Fed’s present benchmark goal vary sits at 1.50-1.75 per cent.

“Folks worry how a lot demand may fall on this interval the place central banks are elevating charges fairly aggressively,” mentioned Nitesh Shah, head of commodities and macroeconomic analysis for Europe at change traded fund supplier WisdomTree.

“With larger recession danger, bonds will help your portfolio as a result of you possibly can worth some fee cuts in coming years” added Guilhem Savry, head of macro and dynamic allocation at Unigestion.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 share index fell 0.9 per cent, following combined eurozone inflation knowledge.

The annual fee of client worth inflation in Germany declined to eight.2 per cent this month from 8.7 per cent in Could, knowledge on Wednesday confirmed. However client costs in Spain rose at their quickest fee for 37 years in June, including 10 per cent.

Elsewhere, Brent crude oil rose 1.8 per cent to $120.05 a barrel as worries about falling international demand had been overshadowed by forecasts of a supply deficit as western nations ratchet up restrictions on Russia.

In Asia, Hong Kong’s Cling Seng share index fell 1.9 per cent whereas its sub-index of know-how shares misplaced 3.3 per cent.

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